Crystal Palace vs Liverpool preview
Crystal Palace has a 22% probability of winning, while Liverpool stands at 56%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance according to the model. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% probability for each, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is also 70%. Crystal Palace's expected goals are 1.47 compared to Liverpool's 2.09.
Recent form shows Crystal Palace with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Liverpool has 4 wins in their last 6. In their last 7 encounters, both teams have 3 wins each, and there is 1 draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a notable level of uncertainty.
Why this pick: Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Crystal Palace 10, Liverpool 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool: model vs market
| Source | Crystal Palace | Draw | Liverpool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| Market | 20% | 22% | 58% |
| Published | 22% | 23% | 56% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.53.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace | 4.78 | 5.35 | +0.57 |
| Draw | 4.51 | 4.42 | -0.09 |
| Liverpool | 1.71 | 1.57 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Crystal Palace and Liverpool expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Crystal Palace / Liverpool)
- 0.93 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Crystal Palace / Liverpool)
- 1.19 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Crystal Palace goals. Columns: Liverpool goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 22% | 4.63 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Liverpool | 56% | 1.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Crystal Palace or draw) | 44% | 2.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Liverpool) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| Handicap -1 | Liverpool win by 2+ | 24% | 4.13 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Crystal Palace and Liverpool recent form
Crystal Palace
1W 2D 3L
Liverpool
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Crystal Palace at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Liverpool away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Crystal Palace at home only, Liverpool away only.
Crystal Palace vs Liverpool head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Crystal Palace 3 · draws 1 · Liverpool 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Liverpool | 3-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2025-10-29 | Liverpool | 0-3 | Crystal Palace | League Cup |
| 2025-09-27 | Crystal Palace | 2-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2025-05-25 | Liverpool | 1-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2024-10-05 | Crystal Palace | 0-1 | Liverpool | Premier League |
| 2024-04-14 | Liverpool | 0-1 | Crystal Palace | Premier League |
| 2023-12-09 | Crystal Palace | 1-2 | Liverpool | Premier League |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Leeds v Tottenham — match page 2026-11-07
- Fulham v Newcastle United — match page 2026-11-07
- Arsenal vs Hull City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Brighton v Brentford — match page 2026-11-08
- Ipswich vs Bournemouth 2026-11-08
- Sunderland vs Chelsea 2026-11-08
- Manchester United vs Aston Villa 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Crystal Palace, previous: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace: odds and pick
- Liverpool, previous: Liverpool – Arsenal, 2026-11-01