FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig preview
FC Schalke 04 has a 27% probability of winning, while RasenBallsport Leipzig stands at 48%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, with a 9% chance. Schalke's expected goals are 1.41 compared to Leipzig's 1.48, indicating a close contest in terms of potential scoring. However, recent form raises questions, as Schalke has recorded L-D-L-L-D-W, while Leipzig has a stronger W-W-L-L-W-W.
Both teams to score sits at 58%, and over 2.5 goals has a probability of 52%. In their last 10 encounters, Schalke has 2 wins, while Leipzig has 7. The confidence grade for this match is C, suggesting uncertainty in the predictions. The disparity in head-to-head results is the largest source of doubt.
Why this pick: FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (FC Schalke 04 8, RasenBallsport Leipzig 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig: model vs market
| Source | FC Schalke 04 | Draw | RasenBallsport Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 30% | 40% |
| Market | 25% | 24% | 52% |
| Published | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.88, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig odds movement
Median bookmaker price on RasenBallsport Leipzig, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 3.60 | 3.87 | +0.27 |
| Draw | 3.90 | 4.00 | +0.10 |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1.89 | 1.85 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
FC Schalke 04 and RasenBallsport Leipzig expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (FC Schalke 04 / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
- 0.69 / 1.31
- Defence rating (FC Schalke 04 / RasenBallsport Leipzig)
- 0.78 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: FC Schalke 04 goals. Columns: RasenBallsport Leipzig goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 58%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Schalke 04 | 26% | 3.85 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.94 | |
| RasenBallsport Leipzig | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.73 |
| No | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (FC Schalke 04 or draw) | 51% | 1.95 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or RasenBallsport Leipzig) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| Handicap -1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig win by 2+ | 20% | 4.89 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
FC Schalke 04 and RasenBallsport Leipzig recent form
FC Schalke 04
1W 2D 3L
RasenBallsport Leipzig
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
FC Schalke 04 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.33
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 3
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
RasenBallsport Leipzig away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 3.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 4.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: FC Schalke 04 at home only, RasenBallsport Leipzig away only.
Injuries & availability
FC Schalke 04 absences
-
A. Gantenbein
muscle injury
- M. Sylla leg injury
- M. Wober muscle injury
- R. Gosens head injury
-
R. Schallenberg
leg injury
- S. El-Faouzi broken nose
RasenBallsport Leipzig absences
-
A. Ouedraogo
shoulder injury
-
C. Nkunku
groin injury
-
M. Esteve
knock
-
M. Guiu
hamstring injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
FC Schalke 04 vs RasenBallsport Leipzig head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: FC Schalke 04 2 · draws 1 · RasenBallsport Leipzig 7.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-27 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 4-2 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2023-01-24 | FC Schalke 04 | 1-6 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2021-02-06 | FC Schalke 04 | 0-3 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2020-10-03 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 4-0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2020-02-22 | FC Schalke 04 | 0-5 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2019-09-28 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 1-3 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2019-03-16 | FC Schalke 04 | 0-1 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
| 2018-10-28 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 0-0 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2018-01-13 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | 3-1 | FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga |
| 2017-08-19 | FC Schalke 04 | 2-0 | RasenBallsport Leipzig | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Elversberg v Mainz 05 — match page 2026-10-30
- Werder Bremen vs Hoffenheim 2026-10-31
- Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 — match page 2026-10-31
- Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV 2026-10-31
- Augsburg v Freiburg — match page 2026-10-31
- Union Berlin vs FC Cologne 2026-10-31
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund — team news & stats 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- FC Schalke 04, previous: FC Cologne vs FC Schalke 04: odds and pick
- RasenBallsport Leipzig, previous: RasenBallsport Leipzig – SV Elversberg, 2026-10-24