Updated

Bundesliga · Matchday 8

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

· Borussia-Park, Monchengladbach

BCCFC prediction Borussia M.Gladbach to win

Bblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Borussia M.GladbachDrawSC Paderborn 07
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.30.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Borussia M.Gladbach is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Borussia M.Gladbach2.02 Draw4.16 SC Paderborn 073.57

Price as of

Expected return at 2.02: -5.1% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 preview

Borussia M.Gladbach has a 48% probability of winning against SC Paderborn 07, who sit at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Borussia M.Gladbach's expected goals are 1.88 compared to SC Paderborn 07's 1.30. This suggests a potential advantage for the home side, but it does not confirm a definitive outcome.

Recent form shows Borussia M.Gladbach with 2 wins and 4 losses, while SC Paderborn 07 has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 6 matches. In their last 7 head-to-head encounters, Borussia M.Gladbach has won 6 times, with SC Paderborn 07 winning just once. The confidence grade for this match is B, highlighting some uncertainty in the predictions.

Why this pick: Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Borussia M.Gladbach 10, SC Paderborn 07 8). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Borussia M.GladbachSC Paderborn 07
1.53 xG per 90 1.13
1.37 npxG per 90 1.13
12.2 PPDA 15.4
5.9 Deep completions per 90 6.4
0.78 xPTS per 90 0.97

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBorussia M.GladbachDrawSC Paderborn 07
Model44%28%27%
Market48%24%28%
Published47%25%28%
Edge-1%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.30.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.02, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Borussia M.Gladbach, 15 snapshots since 2026-10-23.

Opened 1.85Now 1.99 +0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Borussia M.Gladbach1.851.99+0.14
Draw4.003.92-0.08
SC Paderborn 073.603.42-0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07 expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.88Borussia M.Gladbach
1.30SC Paderborn 07
Total expected goals
3.18
Attack rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / SC Paderborn 07)
1.08 / 0.81
Defence rating (Borussia M.Gladbach / SC Paderborn 07)
1.12 / 0.94

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 4.3% 4.3% 1.8% 0.8% 1 6.3% 13.3% 7.2% 3.1% 1.3% 2 7.2% 9.3% 6.1% 2.6% 1.1% 3 4.0% 5.3% 3.4% 1.5% 0.6% 4+ 2.5% 3.2% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4%

Rows: Borussia M.Gladbach goals. Columns: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 57%
Over 3.5 35%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Borussia M.Gladbach47%2.13
Draw25%3.96
SC Paderborn 0728%3.61
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.557%1.74
Under 2.543%2.35
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.62
No38%2.60
Double chance1X (Borussia M.Gladbach or draw)72%1.38
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or SC Paderborn 07)53%1.89
Handicap -1Borussia M.Gladbach win by 2+25%4.06
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Borussia M.Gladbach and SC Paderborn 07 recent form

Borussia M.Gladbach 2W 0D 4L
SC Paderborn 07 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Borussia M.Gladbach at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.33
Goals against / match
3.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

SC Paderborn 07 away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Borussia M.Gladbach at home only, SC Paderborn 07 away only.

Injuries & availability

Borussia M.Gladbach absences

  • E. Leopold knee injury
  • F. Fleck muscle injury
  • F. Honorat muscle injury
  • H. Bolin muscle injury
  • J. Leszczynski knee injury
  • K. Diks personal reasons
  • T. Kleindienst muscle injury

SC Paderborn 07 absences

  • G. Vidovic foot injury
  • M. Hoffmeier muscle injury
  • N. Awortwie-Grant knee injury
  • O. Batista Meier ankle injury
  • S. Klaas muscle injury
  • S. Michel injury
  • T. Gayret knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Borussia M.Gladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Borussia M.Gladbach 6 · draws 0 · SC Paderborn 07 1.

Borussia M.GladbachDrawsSC Paderborn 07
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2021-07-17SC Paderborn 073-1Borussia M.GladbachFriendlies Clubs
2020-08-22SC Paderborn 070-2Borussia M.GladbachFriendlies Clubs
2020-08-22Borussia M.Gladbach2-0SC Paderborn 07Friendlies Clubs
2020-06-20SC Paderborn 071-3Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga
2019-12-18Borussia M.Gladbach2-0SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
2015-03-01Borussia M.Gladbach2-0SC Paderborn 07Bundesliga
2014-09-27SC Paderborn 071-2Borussia M.GladbachBundesliga

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Borussia M.Gladbach to win Predicted score 2 – 1 B Bet on Borussia M.Gladbach
Our pick: Borussia M.Gladbach to win 18+ Bet Now