AC Milan vs Inter preview
AC Milan has a 28% probability of winning, while Inter stands at 51%. The expected goals for AC Milan is 1.86 compared to Inter's 2.51. This indicates a potential advantage for Inter, but it does not prove they will win. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, reflecting a 7% likelihood, suggesting a close match.
Both teams are likely to score, with a 79% probability, and there is an 81% chance of over 2.5 goals. AC Milan's recent form shows 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches, while Inter has recorded 4 wins and 1 draw in the same period. The head-to-head record shows AC Milan with 3 wins, but the recent form of Inter raises some doubt.
Why this pick: AC Milan vs Inter
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (AC Milan 10, Inter 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
AC Milan vs Inter: model vs market
| Source | AC Milan | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 21% | 49% |
| Market | 27% | 25% | 47% |
| Published | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.97.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
AC Milan vs Inter odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Inter, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-25.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan | 2.75 | 3.50 | +0.75 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.73 | +0.33 |
| Inter | 2.40 | 2.00 | -0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
AC Milan and Inter expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.46
- Attack rating (AC Milan / Inter)
- 1.42 / 1.75
- Defence rating (AC Milan / Inter)
- 1.16 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
AC Milan vs Inter score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: AC Milan goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
AC Milan vs Inter goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 80%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for AC Milan vs Inter
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 28% | 3.60 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Inter | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.60 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 80% | 1.25 |
| No | 20% | 5.01 | |
| Double chance | 1X (AC Milan or draw) | 52% | 1.92 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter) | 72% | 1.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 31% | 3.21 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
AC Milan and Inter recent form
AC Milan
3W 1D 2L
Inter
5W 0D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
AC Milan at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-1
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inter away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-1-0
- Win rate
- 75%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 7 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: AC Milan at home only, Inter away only.
Injuries & availability
AC Milan absences
-
A. Rabiot
calf injury
-
A. Saelemaekers
ankle injury
-
D. Moreira
thigh injury
-
M. Gabbia
thigh injury
- M. Gila ankle injury
- R. Loftus-Cheek thigh injury
-
S. Chukwueze
hip injury
Inter absences
- B. Pavard thigh injury
- C. Jones thigh injury
-
J. Stones
injury
-
L. Martinez
thigh injury
- Luis Henrique thigh injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
AC Milan vs Inter head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: AC Milan 3 · draws 1 · Inter 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | AC Milan | 1-0 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2025-11-23 | Inter | 0-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2025-02-02 | AC Milan | 1-1 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2024-09-22 | Inter | 1-2 | AC Milan | Serie A |
| 2024-04-22 | AC Milan | 1-2 | Inter | Serie A |
| 2023-09-16 | Inter | 5-1 | AC Milan | Serie A |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Bologna vs Monza — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Udinese vs Roma — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lazio vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-11-01
- Sassuolo vs Fiorentina 2026-11-01
- Juventus vs Napoli 2026-11-01
- Atalanta v Parma Calcio 1913 — match page 2026-11-01
- Frosinone vs Torino 2026-11-01
- Lecce v Genoa — match page 2026-11-01
Before and after this match
- AC Milan, previous: AC Milan vs Bologna prediction
- Inter, previous: Venezia v Inter analysis