Strasbourg vs Auxerre preview
Strasbourg has a 49% probability of winning against Auxerre, who sit at 27%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance. Strasbourg's expected goals are 1.59 compared to Auxerre's 1.47. Both teams to score has a 60% likelihood, while over 2.5 goals stands at 57%.
Strasbourg's recent form shows 2 wins and 4 matches overall, while Auxerre has 2 wins in their last 6. In their last 4 encounters, Strasbourg has won 3 times and drawn once, with Auxerre yet to secure a victory. The confidence grade is A, but the recent form raises questions about Auxerre's ability to perform.
Why this pick: Strasbourg vs Auxerre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Strasbourg 10, Auxerre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre: model vs market
| Source | Strasbourg | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 52% | 24% | 24% |
| Published | 49% | 24% | 27% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Strasbourg vs Auxerre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Strasbourg, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | 1.81 | 1.83 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.02 | 3.98 | -0.04 |
| Auxerre | 4.03 | 4.00 | -0.03 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Strasbourg and Auxerre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Strasbourg / Auxerre)
- 0.85 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Strasbourg / Auxerre)
- 1.18 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Strasbourg goals. Columns: Auxerre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Strasbourg vs Auxerre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Strasbourg | 49% | 2.04 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Auxerre | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.78 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| No | 41% | 2.46 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Strasbourg or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Auxerre) | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Handicap -1 | Strasbourg win by 2+ | 19% | 5.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Strasbourg and Auxerre recent form
Strasbourg
1W 1D 4L
Auxerre
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Strasbourg at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 1.3 at home.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Auxerre away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 3.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Strasbourg at home only, Auxerre away only.
Injuries & availability
Strasbourg absences
- F. Balde leg injury
-
I. Doukoure
injury
-
J. Panichelli
knee injury
-
S. Amo-Ameyaw
inactive
-
S. Nanasi
injury
Auxerre absences
-
A. Diousse
knee injury
-
M. Senaya
hamstring injury
- R. Labeau Lascary injury
-
S. Fofana
groin injury
-
T. Siwe
muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Strasbourg vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Strasbourg 3 · draws 1 · Auxerre 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Auxerre | 0-0 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Strasbourg | 3-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Auxerre | 0-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Strasbourg | 3-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Le Havre vs Paris Saint Germain — team news & stats 2026-10-30
- Lille v Lens — match page 2026-10-30
- Marseille vs Toulouse 2026-10-31
- Paris FC vs Monaco 2026-10-31
- Nice v Rennes — match page 2026-10-31
- Lyon vs Angers — team news & stats 2026-10-31
- Lorient vs Brest 2026-10-31
- Estac Troyes v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Strasbourg, previous: Rennes – Strasbourg, 2026-10-25
- Auxerre, previous: Auxerre vs Le Mans prediction