SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt preview
SC Paderborn 07 has a 31% chance of winning against Eintracht Frankfurt, who have a 45% probability of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a 9% likelihood. While both teams have a strong chance of scoring, with 70% for both teams to score, the expected goals show SC Paderborn 07 at 1.71 and Eintracht Frankfurt at 2.01.
The 69% probability of over 2.5 goals suggests a high-scoring match, but it does not confirm the actual outcome. SC Paderborn 07's recent form includes two wins and three draws, while Eintracht Frankfurt has three wins and two losses. The confidence grade is A, yet the discrepancy in expected goals raises questions about the match dynamics.
Why this pick: SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (SC Paderborn 07 9, Eintracht Frankfurt 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt: model vs market
| Source | SC Paderborn 07 | Draw | Eintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Market | 32% | 25% | 44% |
| Published | 31% | 25% | 45% |
| Edge | -1% | 0% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.63.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.25, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Eintracht Frankfurt, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 | 2.98 | 3.00 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.77 | 3.83 | +0.06 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.23 | 2.19 | -0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.71
- Attack rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 0.82 / 1.37
- Defence rating (SC Paderborn 07 / Eintracht Frankfurt)
- 1.05 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: SC Paderborn 07 goals. Columns: Eintracht Frankfurt goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SC Paderborn 07 | 31% | 3.26 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.04 | |
| Eintracht Frankfurt | 45% | 2.24 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69% | 1.45 |
| Under 2.5 | 31% | 3.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.43 |
| No | 30% | 3.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (SC Paderborn 07 or draw) | 55% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Eintracht Frankfurt) | 69% | 1.44 | |
| Handicap -1 | Eintracht Frankfurt win by 2+ | 31% | 3.26 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
SC Paderborn 07 and Eintracht Frankfurt recent form
SC Paderborn 07
2W 2D 2L
Eintracht Frankfurt
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
SC Paderborn 07 at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-0-2
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 8 matches.
Eintracht Frankfurt away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 2.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 at home only, Eintracht Frankfurt away only.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: SC Paderborn 07 3 · draws 1 · Eintracht Frankfurt 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-06-27 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3-2 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 2019-12-22 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2015-03-14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4-0 | SC Paderborn 07 | Bundesliga |
| 2014-10-19 | SC Paderborn 07 | 3-1 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga |
| 2012-02-26 | SC Paderborn 07 | 4-2 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2. Bundesliga |
| 2011-08-28 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 0-0 | SC Paderborn 07 | 2. Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich 2026-11-07
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-11-07
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen 2026-11-07
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-11-08
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- SC Paderborn 07, previous: Borussia M.Gladbach v SC Paderborn 07 analysis
- Eintracht Frankfurt, previous: Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV prediction