VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen preview
VfB Stuttgart has a 60% probability of winning against Werder Bremen, with the most likely scoreline at 2-1, which occurs 9% of the time according to the model. Stuttgart's expected goals stand at 2.43, while Bremen's is at 1.52. Both teams are showing a strong likelihood of scoring, with 71% for both teams to score and 72% for over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Stuttgart with three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while Bremen has also performed well with four wins and two draws. The head-to-head record over the last six encounters is evenly matched, with each team securing two wins and two draws. The confidence grade is A, but the equal head-to-head record introduces uncertainty.
Why this pick: VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (VfB Stuttgart 10, Werder Bremen 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen: model vs market
| Source | VfB Stuttgart | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 19% |
| Published | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Edge | -3% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.31.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen odds movement
Median bookmaker price on VfB Stuttgart, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart | 1.47 | 1.66 | +0.19 |
| Draw | 5.18 | 4.55 | -0.63 |
| Werder Bremen | 5.47 | 4.37 | -1.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (VfB Stuttgart / Werder Bremen)
- 1.00 / 1.02
- Defence rating (VfB Stuttgart / Werder Bremen)
- 0.89 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: VfB Stuttgart goals. Columns: Werder Bremen goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | VfB Stuttgart | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.86 | |
| Werder Bremen | 20% | 4.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 | 28% | 3.52 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.41 |
| No | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Double chance | 1X (VfB Stuttgart or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.26 | |
| X2 (draw or Werder Bremen) | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | VfB Stuttgart win by 2+ | 27% | 3.75 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
VfB Stuttgart and Werder Bremen recent form
VfB Stuttgart
2W 1D 3L
Werder Bremen
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
VfB Stuttgart at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Werder Bremen away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-1
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 2.25
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: VfB Stuttgart at home only, Werder Bremen away only.
VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: VfB Stuttgart 4 · draws 3 · Werder Bremen 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-1 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2025-12-14 | Werder Bremen | 0-4 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2025-04-13 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2024-11-30 | Werder Bremen | 2-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2024-04-21 | Werder Bremen | 2-1 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2023-12-02 | VfB Stuttgart | 2-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2023-02-05 | VfB Stuttgart | 0-2 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2022-08-13 | Werder Bremen | 2-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| 2021-04-04 | VfB Stuttgart | 1-0 | Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| 2020-12-06 | Werder Bremen | 1-2 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia M.Gladbach — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich 2026-11-07
- Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg — match page 2026-11-07
- RasenBallsport Leipzig v Augsburg — match page 2026-11-07
- SC Paderborn 07 vs Eintracht Frankfurt 2026-11-07
- FC Cologne v Bayer Leverkusen — match page 2026-11-08
- Freiburg vs Union Berlin — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04 — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- VfB Stuttgart, previous: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart: odds and pick
- Werder Bremen, previous: Werder Bremen – Hoffenheim, 2026-10-31