Rennes vs Lille preview
Rennes has a 47% probability of winning against Lille, who stands at 29%. The most likely scoreline according to the model is 2-1, with an 8% chance. The expected goals for Rennes is 2.44, while Lille's is 1.69. Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Rennes winning 3 of their last 6 matches and Lille winning 3 as well, but with a more inconsistent record.
In their last 6 encounters, Rennes has 1 win, 2 draws, and Lille has 3 wins. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams to score at 74%. The confidence grade is A, but the head-to-head record raises questions about the reliability of the predictions.
Why this pick: Rennes vs Lille
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rennes 10, Lille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rennes vs Lille: model vs market
| Source | Rennes | Draw | Lille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 29% |
| Published | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.6% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Rennes vs Lille odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Rennes, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 2.04 | 2.15 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.76 | 3.70 | -0.06 |
| Lille | 3.10 | 3.20 | +0.10 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rennes and Lille expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.39
- Attack rating (Rennes / Lille)
- 1.21 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Rennes / Lille)
- 1.19 / 1.05
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rennes vs Lille score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rennes goals. Columns: Lille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rennes vs Lille goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 74%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rennes vs Lille
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Lille | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.31 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74% | 1.36 |
| No | 26% | 3.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rennes or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Lille) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Rennes win by 2+ | 29% | 3.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rennes and Lille recent form
Rennes
2W 2D 2L
Lille
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Rennes at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-0
- Win rate
- 80%
- Goals for / match
- 2.60
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
Lille away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 62% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Rennes at home only, Lille away only.
Rennes vs Lille head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Rennes 1 · draws 2 · Lille 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Rennes | 1-2 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Lille | 0-2 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-16 | Rennes | 0-2 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Lille | 1-0 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Lille | 2-2 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-16 | Rennes | 2-2 | Lille | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Toulouse v Strasbourg — match page 2026-11-06
- Auxerre vs Paris FC 2026-11-07
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Angers v Nice — match page 2026-11-08
- Brest vs Lyon — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Le Havre v Lorient — match page 2026-11-08
- Le Mans vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Lens vs Marseille 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Rennes, previous: Nice v Rennes analysis
- Lille, previous: Lille vs Lens: odds and pick