Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 10

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

· Parc des Princes, Paris· Referee Ruddy Buquet

BCCFC prediction Paris Saint Germain to win

Ablended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Paris Saint GermainDrawEstac Troyes
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.14.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Paris Saint Germain is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Paris Saint Germain1.14 Draw12.00 Estac Troyes23.00

Price as of

Expected return at 1.14: -10.8% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes preview

Paris Saint Germain has a 78% probability of winning, while Estac Troyes sits at just 9%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance of occurring. Paris Saint Germain's expected goals are 2.92 compared to Estac Troyes' 1.14, indicating a significant disparity in attacking potential.

Both teams to score has a 66% probability, while over 2.5 goals stands at 72%. Paris Saint Germain's recent form shows six consecutive wins, whereas Estac Troyes has one win, one draw, and four losses in their last six matches. The confidence grade is A, but the disparity in recent form raises questions about the outcome.

Why this pick: Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris Saint Germain 10, Estac Troyes 9). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Paris Saint GermainEstac Troyes
2.76 xG per 90 1.24
2.38 npxG per 90 1.16
10.5 PPDA 16.6
13.0 Deep completions per 90 5.6
2.12 xPTS per 90 1.12

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParis Saint GermainDrawEstac Troyes
Model62%19%19%
Market84%11%6%
Published78%13%9%
Edge-5%+2%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.92 vs 1.14.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.14, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-26.

Opened 1.12Now 1.11 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Paris Saint Germain1.121.11-0.01
Draw9.709.90+0.20
Estac Troyes18.1220.25+2.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.92Paris Saint Germain
1.14Estac Troyes
Total expected goals
4.06
Attack rating (Paris Saint Germain / Estac Troyes)
1.96 / 0.98
Defence rating (Paris Saint Germain / Estac Troyes)
0.93 / 0.93

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.1% 2.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1 5.4% 6.5% 3.6% 1.4% 0.5% 2 7.7% 8.8% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 7.1% 8.1% 4.6% 1.8% 0.6% 4+ 9.6% 11.0% 6.3% 2.4% 0.9%

Rows: Paris Saint Germain goals. Columns: Estac Troyes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%
Over 1.5 90%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 55%
Both teams to score
66%
No goals (0–0)
2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Paris Saint Germain78%1.28
Draw13%7.84
Estac Troyes9%11.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572%1.39
Under 2.528%3.56
Both teams to scoreYes66%1.51
No34%2.98
Double chance1X (Paris Saint Germain or draw)91%1.10
12 (either side)87%1.15
X2 (draw or Estac Troyes)22%4.60
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win by 2+51%1.96
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Paris Saint Germain and Estac Troyes recent form

Paris Saint Germain 6W 0D 0L
Estac Troyes 1W 1D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Paris Saint Germain at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.5 goals per game on the road against 2.0 at home.
  • They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).

Estac Troyes away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-2
Win rate
25%
Goals for / match
0.50
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
1 of 4
  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 9 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Paris Saint Germain at home only, Estac Troyes away only.

Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Paris Saint Germain 9 · draws 1 · Estac Troyes 0.

Paris Saint GermainDrawsEstac Troyes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2023-05-07Estac Troyes1-3Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2022-10-29Paris Saint Germain4-3Estac TroyesLigue 1
2022-05-08Paris Saint Germain2-2Estac TroyesLigue 1
2021-08-07Estac Troyes1-2Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2018-03-03Estac Troyes0-2Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2017-11-29Paris Saint Germain2-0Estac TroyesLigue 1
2016-03-13Estac Troyes0-9Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2015-11-28Paris Saint Germain4-1Estac TroyesLigue 1
2013-04-13Estac Troyes0-1Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2012-11-24Paris Saint Germain4-0Estac TroyesLigue 1

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Paris Saint Germain to win Predicted score 2 – 1 A Bet on Paris Saint Germain
Our pick: Paris Saint Germain to win 18+ Bet Now