Valencia vs Real Madrid preview
Valencia has a 17% chance of winning against Real Madrid, who have a 64% probability of victory. The expected goals for Valencia stand at 1.46, while Real Madrid's expected goals are higher at 2.09. This suggests Real Madrid may have a stronger attacking edge, but it does not prove they will secure the win.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%. Both teams are expected to score, with a 70% probability for each side. Recent form shows Valencia with 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Real Madrid has 5 wins in the same period. The confidence grade is A, yet the recent performance of Valencia raises questions.
Why this pick: Valencia vs Real Madrid
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Valencia 10, Real Madrid 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Valencia vs Real Madrid: model vs market
| Source | Valencia | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27% | 25% | 49% |
| Market | 13% | 17% | 69% |
| Published | 17% | 19% | 64% |
| Edge | +3% | +2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.37, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Valencia vs Real Madrid odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Real Madrid, 32 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 7.50 | 9.80 | +2.30 |
| Draw | 5.10 | 6.01 | +0.91 |
| Real Madrid | 1.36 | 1.27 | -0.09 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Valencia and Real Madrid expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.32
- Attack rating (Valencia / Real Madrid)
- 0.92 / 1.78
- Defence rating (Valencia / Real Madrid)
- 0.98 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Valencia vs Real Madrid score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Valencia goals. Columns: Real Madrid goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Valencia vs Real Madrid goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 70%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Valencia vs Real Madrid
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Valencia | 17% | 6.03 |
| Draw | 19% | 5.24 | |
| Real Madrid | 64% | 1.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70% | 1.42 |
| No | 30% | 3.37 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Valencia or draw) | 36% | 2.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| X2 (draw or Real Madrid) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win by 2+ | 31% | 3.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Valencia and Real Madrid recent form
Valencia
2W 2D 2L
Real Madrid
6W 0D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Valencia at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-4
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.83
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 2 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 11 matches.
Real Madrid away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-0-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.83
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 9 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.4 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Valencia at home only, Real Madrid away only.
Valencia vs Real Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Valencia 2 · draws 2 · Real Madrid 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Valencia | 0-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2025-11-01 | Real Madrid | 4-0 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2025-04-05 | Real Madrid | 1-2 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2025-01-03 | Valencia | 1-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2024-03-02 | Valencia | 2-2 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-11-11 | Real Madrid | 5-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2023-05-21 | Valencia | 1-0 | Real Madrid | La Liga |
| 2023-02-02 | Real Madrid | 2-0 | Valencia | La Liga |
| 2023-01-11 | Real Madrid | 1-1 | Valencia | Super Cup |
| 2022-01-08 | Real Madrid | 4-1 | Valencia | La Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sevilla vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Malaga vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-11-07
- Osasuna vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Elche vs Real Betis 2026-11-08
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-11-08
- Villarreal v Getafe — match page 2026-11-08
- Celta Vigo vs Levante — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Valencia, previous: Elche vs Valencia prediction
- Real Madrid, previous: Racing Santander vs Real Madrid prediction