Osasuna vs Athletic Club preview
Osasuna has a 33% probability of winning, while Athletic Club stands at 40%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 7% chance of occurring. Although Osasuna has an expected goals figure of 1.91 compared to Athletic Club's 1.59, this does not guarantee a win for either side.
Both teams have shown mixed recent form, with Osasuna recording 1 win in their last 6 matches and Athletic Club achieving 2 wins in the same period. The head-to-head record favours Athletic Club, who have 3 wins from the last 7 encounters. The confidence grade for this match is A, but the recent form introduces uncertainty.
Why this pick: Osasuna vs Athletic Club
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Osasuna 10, Athletic Club 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club: model vs market
| Source | Osasuna | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Market | 28% | 28% | 43% |
| Published | 33% | 27% | 40% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.18, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Osasuna vs Athletic Club odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Athletic Club, 23 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 3.30 | 3.60 | +0.30 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.42 | +0.06 |
| Athletic Club | 2.20 | 2.09 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Osasuna and Athletic Club expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Osasuna / Athletic Club)
- 1.28 / 1.39
- Defence rating (Osasuna / Athletic Club)
- 1.01 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Osasuna goals. Columns: Athletic Club goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 71%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Osasuna vs Athletic Club
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Osasuna | 33% | 3.04 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.65 | |
| Athletic Club | 40% | 2.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70% | 1.44 |
| Under 2.5 | 30% | 3.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71% | 1.42 |
| No | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Osasuna or draw) | 60% | 1.66 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Athletic Club) | 67% | 1.49 | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win by 2+ | 16% | 6.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Osasuna and Athletic Club recent form
Osasuna
2W 1D 3L
Athletic Club
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Osasuna at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Athletic Club away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Osasuna at home only, Athletic Club away only.
Osasuna vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Osasuna 2 · draws 4 · Athletic Club 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Athletic Club | 1-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2026-01-03 | Osasuna | 1-1 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2025-03-30 | Athletic Club | 0-0 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2025-01-16 | Athletic Club | 2-3 | Osasuna | Copa del Rey |
| 2024-12-21 | Osasuna | 1-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2024-08-03 | Athletic Club | 2-1 | Osasuna | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2024-05-11 | Athletic Club | 2-2 | Osasuna | La Liga |
| 2023-08-19 | Osasuna | 0-2 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2023-05-25 | Osasuna | 2-0 | Athletic Club | La Liga |
| 2023-04-04 | Athletic Club | 1-1 | Osasuna | Copa del Rey |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Sevilla vs Alaves — team news & stats 2026-11-06
- Malaga vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-11-07
- Valencia vs Real Madrid 2026-11-07
- Elche vs Real Betis 2026-11-08
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-11-08
- Villarreal v Getafe — match page 2026-11-08
- Celta Vigo vs Levante — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Osasuna, previous: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: odds and pick
- Athletic Club, previous: Athletic Club – Real Sociedad, 2026-11-01